NEW YORK (CNNMoney) — Nearly two-thirds of the nation’s housing markets will see price declines for the year through next June, according to analytics firm Fiserv (FISV). Overall, the gains will be just 0.3%. 

If Congress can’t agree on a deal to halt a series of tax increases and spending cuts, a recession is likely, and that would hit the housing recovery hard.

In addition, if the Bush-era tax cut on capital gains is allowed to expire — allowing the rate to increase to 20% from 15% on Jan. 1 — it would take a significant bite out of the profits high-end sellers would realize and give them less to spend on buying a new home, said Celia Chen, an economist and housing market analyst for Moody’s Analytics.